Costco Demands Refund of Trump Tariffs: A Potential Shockwave for U.S. Trade

1. Background: Trump Tariffs Under Legal Fire

In 2025, the Trump administration imposed the broadest emergency import tariffs in U.S. history, affecting hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of goods, from electronics, furniture, machinery to everyday consumer products.

These tariffs were applied under the: International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA, 1977)

Originally designed for narrow national-security emergencies, IEEPA was used to justify sweeping tariff actions on nearly all major import categories and on virtually every trading partner.

This aggressive expansion triggered legal challenges from U.S. importers.

2. Two Federal Courts Have Already Ruled the Tariffs Illegal

In early and mid-2025, two key courts ruled against Trump Tariffs:

• U.S. Court of International Trade (CIT)
• U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit

Both courts concluded that the President overstepped the statutory authority granted under IEEPA, noting that the U.S. Constitution grants tariff-setting power to Congress.

The case is now before: The United States Supreme Court (SCOTUS)

During the oral hearing on November 5, 2025, several justices expressed skepticism about the President’s ability to impose nationwide tariffs under an emergency declaration. The final ruling is expected by mid-2026.

3. Why Costco Filed Its Lawsuit in November 2025

On November 28, 2025, Costco filed a complaint with the U.S. Court of International Trade in New York. The reason:

U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) will begin liquidation, the finalization of import duty bills, starting December 15, 2025.

Once a shipment is liquidated, importers have only 180 days to protest the duties. Costco fears that:

• SCOTUS may issue a decision after liquidation deadlines
• they could lose their legal right to request a refund
• billions in potential reimbursements might be forfeited

Thus Costco is “positioning itself in line” to preserve refund eligibility.

Other importers, including Revlon, Bumble Bee Foods, EssilorLuxottica, and major canned-seafood suppliers have filed similar actions.

4. How Much Money Is at Stake?

According to federal court filings and AP News:

• Trump Tariffs have generated approximately USD 90 billion in revenue as of late 2025.
• Costco, with annual revenues around USD 275 billion, is one of the largest importers in the U.S. retail sector.

If SCOTUS overturns the tariffs, it could trigger: The largest tariff refund event in modern U.S. trade history. CBP processes duty refunds every day, but never at this scale.

5. Will Consumer Prices in the U.S. Go Down?

Many Americans hope tariff refunds will translate into lower retail prices. The reality is more nuanced.

5.1. Possible benefits for consumers

• Lower import costs if the tariffs are struck down
• Expanded sourcing opportunities for retailers
• Greater price competition across major product categories

5.2. But refund money flows to corporations, not consumers

• Refunds go directly to importers such as Costco
• No U.S. law requires retailers to reduce prices after receiving refunds
• Retailers may retain the recovered funds for:
  • margin recovery
  • inventory investment
  • debt management
  • competitive campaigns

Costco has historically resisted aggressive price hikes, even under tariff pressure, so removal of tariffs may stabilize rather than significantly reduce prices.

Thus, price relief for consumers is possible but not guaranteed.

6. Impact on Global Supply Chains and Exporters (Including Vietnam)

If SCOTUS overturns the tariffs:

• U.S. import volumes could rebound sharply
• Consumer goods, electronics, furniture, apparel, and packaged foods may gain cost advantages
• Retailers may diversify further away from China
• Southeast Asia, especially Vietnam could capture more U.S. sourcing demand

For Vietnamese exporters:

• Products may become more price-competitive
• U.S. buyers may increase order volumes
• Logistics planning and Transpacific capacity must be closely monitored

If SCOTUS upholds the tariffs, the opposite dynamic may occur, cost pressures will persist, and U.S. demand may cool.

7. What This Means for Real Logistics

Global tariff shifts directly influence freight flows, demand patterns, and import costs.
Real Logistics continuously tracks:

• U.S. trade policy updates
• tariff-related legal developments
• carrier capacity on Transpacific lanes
• cost fluctuations impacting importers and exporters

This enables Real Logistics to support Vietnamese exporters with:

• accurate scenario planning
• cost-optimized freight strategies
• guidance on U.S. compliance and import market shifts
• data-driven recommendations tailored to specific industries

As U.S. tariff policies evolve, proactive logistics insights become crucial for maintaining competitiveness in the world’s largest consumer market.

7. Conclusion

Costco’s lawsuit is more than a corporate challenge, it could redefine U.S. tariff policy, influence billions in trade revenue, and reshape retail pricing across the country.

With the Supreme Court expected to rule in 2026, the outcome may:

• unleash unprecedented tariff refunds
• reshape consumer pricing
• impact sourcing strategies from Asia
• alter global supply chain flows

For exporters including Vietnam, this is a pivotal development worth monitoring closely.

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