Demand for early shipments before the Lunar New Year pressures container freight rates on the Asia-US route
1. Pressure from pre-Lunar New Year shipping demand and US tax policies
The end of the year is always a busy period for the logistics industry, and 2025 is no exception. The demand for early shipments before Lunar New Year, combined with US tax hikes, has put significant pressure on sea and air freight rates on the Asia-US route. This has led to a notable increase in rates on Trans-Pacific shipping lanes.
Currently, sea freight rates have risen by about 15% compared to early December and are expected to continue increasing in the coming weeks due to successful General Rate Increases (GRIs) in mid-December. Forecasts suggest that rates will fluctuate significantly in early 2025 as new US tax policies come into effect. President-elect Donald Trump has proposed higher tariffs on Chinese goods, encouraging businesses to expedite shipments before the new tariffs are applied.
2. Container rates on major shipping routes
Carriers predict that demand for shipments before Lunar New Year will sustain the rate hikes, with increases expected to range from $1,000 to $3,000 per FEU (Forty-Foot Equivalent Unit). Although operations at major US ports remain smooth, carriers are bracing for a potential surge in cargo volumes in the coming weeks.
On the Trans-Atlantic route, which has been stable since October, some carriers have announced disruption surcharges of up to $2,000 per FEU. This is expected to raise rates in January, as the ILA port worker strike and carrier alliance restructuring could disrupt the supply chain.
Freight rates on the Asia-Europe and Mediterranean routes have dropped by 3%–7% from early December’s peak. However, recent bad weather at major European ports has caused minor congestion, maintaining pressure on rates.
3. Air freight demand begins to cool
While sea freight rates remain high, the air freight market is beginning to cool down. According to Freightos Air Index data, air freight rates on Trans-Pacific and Trans-Atlantic routes have started to decline from their early December peak as the holiday season winds down. However, rates from China to Europe remain high, at nearly $5 per kg.
Some experts predict that demand for freight shipments before the US tariff hikes will continue to keep air freight rates high into the new year. Additionally, the new tariffs on Chinese goods could increase global air freight volumes, especially for component shipments from China to other Asian countries.
4. Shipping via Panama Canal and Red Sea
Apart from traditional shipping routes, the situation at the Panama Canal and the Red Sea is also gaining attention. President Trump has proposed that the US regain control of the Panama Canal to counter China’s growing influence there. Meanwhile, ongoing conflict in the Red Sea region continues to force vessels to reroute, contributing to high freight rates. Despite recent military strikes by Israel and the US against Houthi forces, security in the area remains unstable.
5. Overview and solutions from Real Logistics
The upward pressure on rates along the Asia-US route and other regions highlights the need for optimized logistics solutions. Real Logistics advises exporters to closely monitor freight rate trends and consider flexible shipping options. Additionally, expediting shipments and preparing comprehensive customs documentation can help reduce costs and shipping time.
As a professional logistics service provider, Real Logistics is committed to offering efficient transportation solutions to meet the diverse needs of its customers, especially during periods of volatile freight rates like the current one.
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