Vietnam’s Economic & Logistics Trends 2025: Opportunities & Strategic Solutions

This article is compiled from the report "Global and Vietnam Economy 2025" by Dr. Cấn Văn Lực, presented at the 2024 Annual Conference of HNLA. The data sources include the World Bank (WB), Asian Development Bank (ADB), BIDV Research, the Ministry of Planning & Investment, and major economic research organizations.

View the full report here: [Link to report]

1. Global & Vietnamese Economic Outlook 2024-2025

1.1. Global Economy: Slow Recovery with Significant Risks

According to forecasts from the WB and ADB, the global economy is expected to grow at 2.7% during 2024-2025, which is lower than the 2011-2019 average.

Key trends:

• Gradual decline in inflation: Global CPI is projected at 3.4% in 2024 and 2.9% in 2025.
• Interest rates remain high: Major central banks like the Fed (US) and ECB (Europe) are reducing interest rates at a slow pace.
• Slower global trade growth: Expected at 3.4% in 2024 and 3.2% in 2025-2026.
• Increase in public investment & green technology: Nations are focusing on infrastructure, AI, semiconductors, and renewable energy.

Major risks:

• Prolonged geopolitical conflicts and escalating trade-technology wars, disrupting global supply chains.
• Persistently high inflation and interest rates, along with rising public debt risks.
• Slower recovery in the US and China, leading to lower global growth.
• Security risks in energy, food supply chains, and climate change, affecting production and logistics costs.

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1.2. Vietnam’s Economy: Strong Growth but Requires Strategic Adaptation

Vietnam remains one of the fastest-growing economies in the region. GDP is projected to grow by 7.09% in 2024 and 8% in 2025. Exports are also rebounding strongly, reaching $405.5 billion in 2024, with expected growth of 10-12% in 2025.

Despite these positive indicators, Vietnam faces several challenges:

• High logistics costs, accounting for 16.5% of GDP, significantly above the global average of 11.6%.
• Delayed public investment disbursement, failing to reach 95% of planned targets.
• Exchange rate fluctuations and rising bad debts, affecting financial markets.
• Private sector exports and investment have yet to return to pre-pandemic levels.

2. Vietnam’s Logistics Industry: Opportunities & Challenges

2.1. Opportunities for Logistics Development in 2025

Vietnam’s logistics sector is experiencing strong growth, contributing 5.17% to GDP in 2024, with further expansion expected in 2025. Several factors are driving this growth:

• New-generation FTAs (CPTPP, EVFTA, RCEP) provide opportunities for export expansion and supply chain diversification.
• Increased public investment in transportation infrastructure, facilitating freight transport and logistics services.
• Rising demand for green logistics, particularly from multinational corporations.

2.2. Key Challenges in Vietnam’s Logistics Industry

Despite its potential, Vietnam’s logistics industry faces major constraints:

• High logistics costs, which reduce business competitiveness.
• Domestic logistics companies remain small, holding only 20% market share, while foreign firms dominate.
• Severe shortage of skilled labor, particularly in supply chain management and logistics technology.
• Slow progress in digital transformation & green logistics, despite being critical industry trends.

3. Strategic Solutions for Vietnam’s Logistics Enterprises

Given the complex economic landscape, logistics enterprises must implement the following strategies (as per the report by Dr. Cấn Văn Lực, BIDV Research, WB, ADB):

3.1. Leverage Policy Support and Optimize Costs

Businesses should maximize benefits from tax reductions, interest rate support, and logistics infrastructure investment programs. Additionally, streamlining operational processes and adopting technology-driven efficiencies can help cut costs.

3.2. Digital Transformation and Green Logistics

The dual transition of digitalization and sustainability is becoming an essential requirement in logistics. Companies should:

• Apply digital technology in operations, using AI, Blockchain, and IoT to optimize supply chains.
• Invest in green logistics, including eco-friendly transportation, smart warehousing, and CO2 emissions reduction.
• Engage in the carbon credit market, capitalizing on policies promoting sustainable logistics.

3.3. Diversify Supply Chains and Markets

• Reduce dependence on a single market by expanding partnerships with multiple stakeholders.
• Leverage FTAs (EVFTA, CPTPP, RCEP) to enhance export opportunities and explore alternative supply sources.

3.4. Strengthen Risk Management and Compliance with International Standards

• Ensure supply chain transparency, mitigating risks related to trade protectionism.
• Proactively prevent trade fraud and comply with Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) standards.

3.5. Develop a High-Quality Logistics Workforce

• Enhance training programs to upskill workers, particularly in logistics technology and supply chain management.
• Collaborate with international organizations to upgrade management and operational capabilities.

4. Conclusion

Vietnam’s logistics industry is at a turning point, driven by economic integration, digital transformation, and sustainable development. However, to seize these opportunities, businesses must adopt agile strategies, leverage policy support, optimize operations, and expand strategic partnerships to achieve long-term success in an increasingly competitive landscape.

View the full report here: [Link to report]

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